On 2nd November, it's the U.S. Midterm Elections. I nerded it up quite heavily during the 2008 U.S. General Election, even finding a way to go to President Obama's Inauguration. I've remained interested in US politics during the last two years, but it's taken a new election for me to really get bogged down in it again. So here's what I know!
Who's being elected?
All 435 members of the House of Representatives will be elected (as happens every two years).
34 Senators will be elected (the bi-annual churn of 1/3 of the Senate) and 3 special elections will be held for the Senate seats vacated by Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and the late Robert Byrd.
37 State Governors will be elected, plus the Governors of the Territories of the US Virgin Islands, and Guam. I get the chance here to use one of my favourite words - gubernatorial. Though, not in any meaningful context.
There will also be a bunch of local elections, judicial elections, and state ballots and referenda.
Who will win?
The polls are showing that control of the House hangs in the balance. There is a very strong chance the Republicans will take back control of the House, elevating John Boehner (is that pronounced "boner"? Surely not) to Speaker.
It is likely the Senate will stay with the Democrats. Of the 37 seats up for election, 19 of them were Democrat and 18 were Republican. The Democrats would effectively have to lose 9 seats to lose their voting majority. Most of the polls only show 6 or 7 seats as "too close to call".
Those 39 governorships are pretty evenly split as well - 20 (D) to 19 (R). There's no "balance of power" with governorships per se - they only have power in their states - but the big ones that are too close to call are Florida (I), Maryland (D), Mass (D), New Mexico (D), Minnesota (R), Vermont (R), and California (R - Arnie is retiring because of term-limits).
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